Previewing FC Dallas’ Crucial Last Four Games
With 4 games left in the season, FC Dallas is 5 points behind 9th place and the last playoff spot.
Let’s look at FCD’s last four opponents and preview what the Burn are up against.
September 28th // vs Orlando
To be clear, all of these final four games are hugely important. Dallas has a steep hill to climb and cannot afford hardly any slip-ups. And it all starts at home against Orlando City, SC, and their old pal Oscar Pareja. Winning this game will, at the very least, keep Dallas within 5 points of Minnesota in 9th and, if results go their way, could pull them into just a 2-point deficit.
Orlando enters the match having lost in Columbus 4-3 the previous weekend. Before that, they were on a 3-game winning streak, outscoring opponents Nashville, New England, and Charlotte 8-0, though those games were all at home. Orlando hasn’t won on the road since before the Leagues Cup break, a 3-0 win in Nashville. They follow the game in Dallas with a midweek match at home against Philadelphia, and considering the extremely volatile and tight nature of the eastern conference this season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Pareja rotate some players in Frisco to have them fresh for the Union.
Orlando has a lot of danger up top with the likes of top scorer Facundo Torres (12 goals) and USMNT fringe striker Duncan McGuire (9 goals). Orlando will be a tough challenge for Peter Luccin’s men, but without question, this is an absolute must-win.
October 2nd // at San Jose
PHOTO: Jerome Miron/Imagn Images
Make no mistake about it: FC Dallas is bad on the road in 2024. Across 15 games, Dallas has won just one time, gotten 5 draws, and suffered a whopping 9 losses. Things have been marginally better under Peter Luccin; 5 of the 8 road points Dallas have come under him, but this is still a team that struggles mightily to get points on the road. And due to some results that didn’t go their way since the Leagues Cup, they are going to need to not just get a draw on the road in this final stretch; they need to win.
Luckily for Dallas, they have what is probably the best-case scenario for a road game on this stretch: a game against the worst team in the league, the San Jose Earthquakes. The Quakes, like Dallas, have an interim manager after firing Luchi Gonzalez earlier in the season but haven’t had much of a new coach bounce to speak of under Ian Russell. Dallas last played the Quakes way back on opening day, where a late Dante Sealy goal got the three points for Dallas (boy, that feels like a long time ago, huh?).
But despite the fact the Quakes are in pretty brutal form, having lost 3 of their last 4, they have some danger, especially in attack. Cristian Espinoza is one of the most goal-dangerous wingers in the league, and if there’s one positive from Russell’s interim stint, it is that he’s gotten quite a bit out of striker Jeremy Ebobisse. But the Quakes give up a lot of goals, the most in the league, and Dallas will absolutely need to exploit their defensive frailties and claim all three points in this game to give themselves a real shot at getting into the postseason.
October 6th // at Portland
Dallas stays on the West Coast after their match in San Jose and heads up to Portland to take on the Timbers. Let’s be blunt: historically, this has been a nightmare matchup for Dallas. Dallas has not beaten Portland in regular season play in Portland since 2016, and this isn’t looking like a great time to change their fortunes. Portland is one of the hottest teams in the league and has been scoring for fun; only Miami has more goals in 2024 than the Timbers. What’s worse is Portland basically doesn’t need to leave the Pacific Northwest to close the season, so they won’t be dealing with any kind of travel fatigue when Dallas comes to town.
Portland’s attack is terrifyingly effective. Evander leads the pack with 15 goals and 15 assists, making him a legitimate MVP candidate. However, Jonathan Rodriguez (15 goals) and Felipe Mora (14 goals) helped complete the attack and made them an absolute terror to deal with for any defensive unit. On the other hand, Portland doesn’t have a stellar defense, conceding 11 goals in their 5 games since the Leagues Cup break.
If nothing else, this game is likely to be wildly entertaining. But if there’s one game in these final four in which points should not be expected, it is this one.
October 19th // vs Sporting KC
MLS sure loves scheduling Dallas and sporting KC to play in the final game of the season. This will be the third time since 2019 that the two have met on Decision Day, and interestingly, it may be the third time that Dallas is fighting for a playoff spot against an already eliminated SKC. In both 2019 and 2022, Dallas was able to pull off the wins they needed to secure a playoff spot in 2019 and 3rd in the west in 2022. In 2024, it isn’t guaranteed that this game will be anything more than two already-eliminated teams playing out what might be the least important game on Decision Day. But it is also very possible that Dallas will be in a must-win position against a team that would love to play the spoiler.
For their part, SKC has to be pretty devastated. They lost the US Open Cup final to LAFC in extra time on September 25th and are finishing out another disappointing season. But SKC hasn’t been awful in the second half of the season, pulling off a number of pretty impressive wins like their 4-1 demolition of the Rapids and a 3-0 win over Orlando City, though both of those were at home. SKC hasn’t won on the road since a trip to San Jose on July 13th (and before that, you have to go all the way back to March 30th to find another road win).
SKC isn’t without danger, though. Johnny Russell loves to score against the Burn, Erik Thommy is one of the most underrated players in the league, and Alan Pulido and William Agada still provide threats from up top. But the Dallas attack should be licking their chops at the opportunity to attack SKC’s relatively soft defense, which has just not been able to consistently keep the ball away from and out of Tim Melia’s net.
If Dallas does end up in a position where a win could get them into the postseason, this is about as ideal of a situation they could be in to get that win.
What do you think Dallas’ chances to make the postseason are based on these final four matches?
PHOTO: Jerome Miron/Imagn Images
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