With the season barely a third of the way through, it is a bit early for projections. But it is hard not to speculate when there wasn’t anyone (including myself), who gave the 2019 Rangers a shot at making the playoffs.
Yet here we sit on June 12th and Texas is six games over .500. They are also holding the second wildcard spot by 2 games. This got me thinking about where the Rangers would finish if they kept up their current pace. I also wondered how it compared to the last five years.
At the time of writing this, Texas is 36-30.
Home record is 24-12. That means they are winning 66% of their home games.
Away record is 12-18. Texas is only winning 40% of games on the road.
As of today, the Rangers have 43 remaining home games and 48 on the road. If they won 66% of the remaining home games that would be 28 wins. If Texas were to continue winning only 40% of road games, that would be an additional 19 wins. On the current pace, the Rangers would end the season with an 83-79 record.
I like to think I am a positive person so let’s look at it this way. What if the Rangers were to increase their road game winning percentage to 50 %, along with the current 66% at home? That would have Texas finishing the year 88-74. That is a 21 game improvement over last year. That begs the question, do they make the playoffs? Well, let’s see where that compares to the last five year. (I am only looking at the wildcard since Houston would need a devastating collapse for Texas to catch them.)
Listen to RANGERS NATION PODCAST
In 2018 the wildcard teams were the Yankees with 100-62 record and Oakland with 97-65 record.
The Yankees once again were a wildcard team with a 91-71 record. Minnesota was the second wildcard team with an 85-77 record.
Both wildcard teams came out of the east in 2016. Baltimore and Toronto both finished with an 89-73 record. (FYI, Texas won the west that year with a 95-67 record.)
Texas barely edged out Houston to win the west with an 88-74 record. The Yankees were the first wildcard team with an 87-75 record and Houston was the second wildcard team with an 86-76 record.
In 2014 Kansas City was the first wildcard team with an 89-77 record. Oakland was the second with an 88-74 record.
LAST 5 YEAR AVERAGE
If you take the last five years and average out the wildcard team records, you get 90-72. In my positive scenario of 50% road wins, the Rangers come up 2 games short. However take away the 2018 season where both wildcard teams won close to 100 games, and you get an average of 88-74. That means they make the playoffs in the average. But there were also years where the wildcard teams won between 85 and 87 games.
So what does this all mean? It means you just read over 450 words that leave you with no real clear answer. It also means, for the Rangers to have a shot at the playoffs they need to win more on the road while staying hot at home.
No matter what happens with this team. they are a blast to watch. In a year when nobody gave them a chance, the Rangers have ducked their heads and ground out wins.
Forget the numbers and just enjoy the ride.
Featured Image: LM Otero/AP